Three Things To Consider When Considering Whether To Be Bullish or Bearish on the SPY.
Stocks proceed to climb higher on the back of earnings which have beaten expectations to this point (albeit lowered expectations). The NASDAQ 100 just closed at the very best level since last August. The S&P 500 (SPY) is getting ready to a breakout above $4200. The VIX just closed below 16 for the primary time in well over a 12 months.
Whether or not stock markets rip even higher stays to be seen. Momentum can definitely take prices beyond reasonable levels and to extremes.
To cite Keynes- “Markets can remain irrational longer than investors can remain solvent”. Within the short run, markets can and can do almost anything.
Over just a little longer-term horizon, nevertheless, three things are price considering before you think about getting long stocks at these levels. Let’s look back to a few 12 months ago (11 months) when the S&P 500 was at an identical price to see what has modified in that time-frame.
The 2 option montages below show option prices from Friday’s close and from the close on June 2, 2022.
Back on June 2, 2002, the SPY closed at $417.39. Friday it finished at $415.93, so just about the identical price as Friday, only a touch lower (0.35%) now.
The June 16, 2023, options have 49 days to expiration (DTE). The July 15, 2022, options have 43 DTE. So, just a little longer (6 days) for the 2023 options now.
Normally, puts which can be closer to the cash with more time to expiration are dearer. But since the VIX -or implied volatility (IV) – is at lows, the puts now are literally much inexpensive ($6.71 now versus $11.26 then).
All due to the big drop in IV from 24.49 to fifteen.54. The table below puts the comparison together, together with a % of strike (option price /$412 strike price) and downside breakeven ($412 strike price -option price).
So, a much lower cost for a lot better protection. Form of like paying less insurance premium for a lower deductible with the very same coverage.
10-year Treasury yield was 2.913% on June 2, 2022. Friday it closed at 3.452%.
Fed Funds rate was under 1% back then, approaching 5% now.
Little question rates of interest have risen sharply over the past 11 months.
P/E was 21.51 June 2, 2022. P/E today is 24.14.-and nearing the richest multiple since December 2021. The last time it was above 24 was February 2 of this 12 months which coincided with a major top within the S&P 500.
FactSet mentioned that it’s interesting to notice that Amazon.com can also be the most important contributor to earnings growth for the whole S&P 500 for Q1 and 2023. If this company were excluded, the (blended) earnings decline for the S&P 500 for Q1 2023 would increase to -5.1% from -3.7%, while the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for CY 2023 would fall to 0.2% from 1.2%. Either way, earnings are still receding and do not look to see much growth over the subsequent few quarters.
Increased rates of interest and lower earnings should result in lower valuation multiples-and lower stock prices. As an alternative, stock markets are back approaching fresh latest multi-year highs on valuation and all-time highs on price.
The assumption within the Fed to start out lowering rates prior to projected and earnings to start out improving more quickly than expected requires a fairly good leap of religion.
Traders and investors alike will probably want to hedge that faith just a little. Buying some downside protection with puts which can be the most cost effective they’ve been in a protracted time makes a variety of sense – the whole lot considered.
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All of the Best!
SPY shares closed at $415.93 on Friday, up $3.52 (+0.85%). 12 months-to-date, SPY has gained 9.17%, versus a % rise within the benchmark S&P 500 index throughout the same period.
In regards to the Creator: Tim Biggam
Tim spent 13 years as Chief Options Strategist at Man Securities in Chicago, 4 years as Lead Options Strategist at ThinkorSwim and three years as a Market Maker for First Options in Chicago. He makes regular appearances on Bloomberg TV and is a weekly contributor to the TD Ameritrade Network “Morning Trade Live”. His overriding passion is to make the complex world of options more comprehensible and due to this fact more useful to the on a regular basis trader. Tim is the editor of the POWR Options newsletter. Learn more about Tim’s background, together with links to his most up-to-date articles.